Numbers, guns, and psychedelics 
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WHERE ARE YOU?

Here, an AI generated the phrase "Nokia phone" for us. I like it. A lot.

Remember the days of European phones? When Nokia was dominant? When it seemed every other person had a Sony Ericsson? When Siemens was relevant enough that people made jokes about its name?

Devices made in the continent were everywhere — until they weren't. Seemingly overnight.

In reality, this shift to Asian and American companies ruling the roost took several years, but the way our memory works means it seems like a sudden and violent fall.

Now, we're in autumn, the time many companies release their new handsets. With this season in full swing we had a question: could this state of affairs ever change?

In other words, is it possible Europe will have a dominant smartphone again?

So we did what we do best: wrote an article exploring (and answering) this question.

Why did European phones fall from grace? Can they become dominant again? And does any of this event matter?

Well, you'll have to read the article to find out.

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A letter from Boris: Damn lying numbers

I've always been suspicious about numbers. That may sound weird because common wisdom says that “numbers don't lie.”

To me, that statement sounds suspiciously similar to the one often quoted by firearm advocates: “Guns don't kill people; people kill people.”

In my experience, there’s an amazing amount of lying, obfuscation, and misleading done with numbers — often accompanied by the statement that they "don't lie."

Maybe, just maybe, the number five is what it says it is: the number five. And, similarly, no gun has walked out the door, pulled its own trigger, and killed someone.

Both common sayings might be factually accurate, but they're useless and misleading if the conclusion people come to is that guns are safe and all numbers can be trusted.

Let’s look at an example.

What temperature does water boil at? The answer is simple, right? 100° Celsius (or 212° Fahrenheit).

A child knows that. Except, in reality, the answer actually depends on circumstances and context.

At the top of Mount Everest, water boils at 67° Celsius. Down in the Mariana Trench, you would need to heat your water to 526° Celsius before it does the same.

Atmospheric pressure dictates the temperature water boils at. And if you take a pressure cooker to Mount Everest or down to the Mariana Trench, that's the context that’ll change the answer to the question.

But surely certain numbers don't need context? Math is math, and you can't argue with it. One plus one is always two, after all.

Apart from, no, sometimes it isn't.

Think of when you ask someone how much they paid for their coffee. Often, you’ll hear something like, “Oh, about a dollar". Your conclusion is that two coffees would cost about two dollars. But you’d be wrong.

Since the “about a dollar” statement was really $1.39, the two drinks come to $2.78 — a lot closer to three dollars than it is to two.

But this is a casual chat about coffee — not business. Indeed, at a company, you're always more precise, the context is always clear, and there are never rounding errors, right?

Let’s take an example of a sales manager. Tracking their performance should be straightforward: the one selling the most is the best sales manager. Who can argue with that?

But are they achieving this because they're overpromising? Or did they inherit the most profitable client set from a previous sales manager? Or do they have a golden client that renews every year without discussion or negotiation?

Yes, guns kill people and numbers lie — and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.



Boris Veldhuijzen van Zanten

Boris Veldhuijzen van Zanten
Founder, TNW

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What we’re writing about

It's been a good week for sweet TNW content.

Automakers going in on gaming? We've got that.

Advice for your cover letter? You betcha.

Running your office as though it was a DAO? Uh huh.

The new Polestar electric SUV? HELL YEAH.

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A TNW Talk for you to enjoy!

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Jason Silva is a futurist, host of National Geographic’s Brain Games, and a regular speaker at TNW.

His latest talk at the conference was entitled 'The Cyberdelic Age,' covering the convergence of virtual realities and psychoactive substances.

It's a fascinating topic — and one he covers with gusto. Watch the whole thing here.

Jobs of the week

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🔨 Engineering Lead

Mastercard • London, UK

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Flink • Amsterdam, NL

🤖 Fullstack Engineer

Cyborg IT • Paris, FR

Tweet of the week

Screenshot 2022-10-26 at 15.21.08

 

Keep on shining, people. Until next time!

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